Sure, you need to consider that Sometimes it's more of a distribution problem than a content problem, but, once you are in a good market like RoyalRoad, and you are passionate about it, chances are if you work hard enough, you have a good shot at making it. Hard work doesn't mean you are going to make it, obviously. But writing a lot, consistently, improving, learning how to manipulate your audience's feelings... it all goes a long a way toward making you a successful writer.
This might be one of those very controversial ideas that some will never underestand. Writing is one of the fields were it's almost impossible to tell when someone is really good unless they have already published something. And even then, Sometimes it's more of a distribution problem than a content problem.